FINAL_FW2607-08_DIGITAL - Flipbook - Page 32
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
INDUSTRY INSIGHTS
by Mark Wijman, executive director, AEDP (Attractions Economics Design and Planning)
Balancing Data and Decision Making
How to best forecast, understand market reality, and ensure success
GETTY IMAGES
ATTRACTIONS INDUSTRY LEADERS
HAVE ACCESS TO MORE DATA THAN
EVER: attendance by the hour, per cap
by category, queue heat maps, sentiment
tracking, conversion funnels, and the list
goes on. However, the ability to make
decisions seems to be getting harder.
The conflict is not data versus
intuition. The conflict is how to effectively
use both.
Testing the Numbers
In my experience, many projects have
not succeeded because the data was
never properly stress tested. There was a
famous park that opened with attendance
projections based on tourism growth
statistics and optimistic capture rates. The
reality was that within the first year of
operation, the attendance was a fraction
of what was forecast. The reason for
the discrepancy was not the execution
of the project. The reason was a flawed
understanding of the market and a cost
base that was designed to a reality that
never existed.
Experience has shown the most
common mistakes in forecasting are the
simplest.
Tourism growth statistics are based
on the number of visits, not the number
of unique visitors. Market studies can be
based on optimistic bias. The reality of the
market can be misunderstood by failing to
segment the data. The growth in the data
can be linear, with no consideration of
what happens in a downward trend.
I consider intuition a data point, but
not the data itself. If the data suggests
that a forecast is too optimistic or too
conservative, then intuition says to test it.
The art is to test the intuition to validate or
invalidate the data.
Testing Di昀昀erent Markets
One interesting calibration exercise is
to compare the same attraction concept
in two different markets, one of which
30
is a mega city of tens of millions within a one-hour trip with a
large target demographic. In such a market, an attraction concept
can be pushed to its limits in terms of capacity. In a mid-size
metropolitan area, the ceiling will be much lower in terms of the
target demographic. While the attraction concept itself may be
identical in each of these markets, the markets themselves are
not. While it’s tempting to borrow performance assumptions from
one market to the other, it’s not ambition; it’s inaccuracy.
After establishing the market reality, performance is a result of
three interrelated disciplines.
Financial Forecasting
Investment planning needs to be thorough. A feasibility study
should consider downside scenarios just as much as upside
scenarios. Investment needs to be properly aligned to realistic
demands, including planning for reinvestment from day one.
Expense management requires a structural approach.
Payroll costs, marketing, maintenance, and utilities are usually
predictable in terms of industry standards. A pro forma that
significantly diverges from these standards should be understood
by management precisely for what reason.
Overruns in costs during the development phase are a
permanent increase in the hurdle rate. Maintenance costs rapidly
erode guest perception.
The best operators I have observed are neither purely
analytical in their approach to running a business nor purely
intuitive. This balance requires discipline, and they are those
who can use data to establish a range of performance and
experience to interpret what the data alone cannot tell them.
Funworld | JULY/AUGUST 2026 | IAAPA.org/Funworld
Mark Wijman,
ICAE, designs,
plans, and operates
economically
sound, memorable
visitor experiences.
Former World Expo
operations director,
theme park GM, and
AECOM consultant,
Mark is an IAAPA
Certified Attractions
Executive. Connect
:
with him on
